Academy Awards / Oscar Nominations / Oscar Predictions

No one cares, but one of the best films of 2009, THAT EVENING SUN, was closed out by the Oscars this year. No Hal Holbrook nomination.

Watch the THAT EVENING SUN Movie Trailer

Okay, the rant is over.

Now for the nominations and my predictions:

Conan O'Brien and the Tonight Show?

NBC has got it wrong! Conan is the future of the “Tonight Show” franchise. But what about other players like upstart George Lopez, Jimmy Kimmel, and the flat out bland Jimmy Fallon? How can Leno return and survive and remain current? And in a half hour format?

Letting Conan go would doom the famed Tonight Show. The weird looking red-head is 14 years younger than Jay and will, if given time, prove to be the hippest late night player. It is that hip attitude that will prevail. Part of this is just a matter of age—Conan is 46 years old, everyone else is long in the tooth.

Kenny Rogers! Yes, Kenny Rogers has a pivotal role in the return of BIG LOVE to HBO.

Bill Henderson always has his hands full. If his three wives and nine children all under three contiguous homes doesn't break him, his entrepreneurial ambitions might. And those distractions are just the tip of the iceberg.

Michael Cera

Child stars rarely become adult ones.But Michael Cera is making the transition with few missteps. Currently, he’s firmly rooted in his teen star phase, and he’s now 21 years old.

Last year at Sundance, I took in the mighty sweet “Paper Heart,” a mockumentary staring adorable comedian Charlyne Yi. Cera played the love interest and a facsimile of himself. The film had fun with his goofy stardom and traded well on the chemistry between the two young faces. Cera has the kind of look that sells most anything.

Arguably the worst year for the Academy Awards to expand the Best Picture category from five nominations to ten, 2009 still managed to produce a number of varied and unusual films indicative of the time.

In a year dominated by economic chaos but charged with a unique leader and surprise Nobel laureate in President Barack Obama, 2009 was dominated by unique voices.  In music there was the different lo-fi sound of Vampire Weekend. In film explosions were matched with frenetic visuals, a seasoned movie star flexed his acting prowess by perfecting the art of the corporate downsize, and the most unlikely of plus-sized comedians made us cry and cry. And cry I did. 2009 was down but profoundly so.

James Cameron

12 years! It’s been that long since James Cameron has made a narrative feature film. “Avatar,” opening this Friday, is his long awaited return. And the risks are huge. With a reported budget in excess of $220 million, the farm and then some has been wagered on Cameron’s vision. The place he takes us in “Avatar” is the far off world of Pandora, where the indigenous population is literally squatting on a mineral sought by the human race. A battle is brewing and a group of scientists seek a diplomatic solution, otherwise, a military one awaits.

Having just experienced the Atlanta Mayoral runoff election which was decided by less than 800 votes in a race in which the race issue was looming in the background, I wondered whether the Hollywood awards season would also be marked by the race race. And whether audiences would see beyond racial trappings and just take in a really good movie.

The Troy Duffy story should be taught to film students.  The infamous bar-tender turned filmmaker made the trade papers in Hollywood and then crashed and burned through a series of mistakes centering on inexperience with dealing with the system.  But he was successful in producing a feature, 1999’s “Boondock Saints,” that rose quickly to cult status on DVD after an unsuccessful limited theatrical run.  Many Internet forums have been devoted to Duffy and the Boondock universe.

This critic was told to stay at home tonight when TWILIGHT: NEW MOON screens in Atlanta. And I was not alone. While it is not news for a film to not screen for critics, it is troubling that press invitations to see the hotly anticipated sequel to the 2008 blockbuster were only sent to a select few, especially in a growing market like Atlanta. Such a thing calls into question the entire process of advanced screenings for review purposes. And it begs the question, what does Summit have to fear?

Disaster follows Roland Emmerich. And that’s been a good thing.

With the release of “2012,” event film director Emmerich is bound to continue his colorful reign as the disaster king. The German born director has found great success, at times, both commercially and critically, with largely end-of-the-world themes. EI’s Janos Gereben emailed me after seeing “2012” and called it “the mother of all disaster movies.” Whether or not that is a ringing endorsement will be resolved when Janos posts his full review.